The total cumulative PV capacity in China is forecast to reach to 255 GW at the end of 2020, resulting in around 40 GW of installations per year in 2018, 2019 and 2020, according to IHS Markit report.
The Chinese National Energy Administration (NEA) reported on October 30, 2018 that China had added 34.5 gigawatts (GW) of solar photovoltaic (PV) power in the first three quarters of 2018, bringing the total installed PV capacity to 165 GW.
NEA is now discussing new PV targets for 2020, with reported proposals ranging from 210 GW to 270 GW.
“While it appears that China will maintain a steady level of annual installations, quarterly fluctuations will continue, shaped by policy-making decisions,” Holly Hu, senior analyst, Solar Supply Chain at IHS Markit, said.
The limits on new PV installations announced by the Chinese government in May 2018 have resulted in a reduction of PV installations in the second half of the year.
The drop in PV module prices has boosted demand. China has plans to more than double the original 105 GW PV target conceived in the 13th five-year plan to be achieved by 2020.
China’s challenge will be to design a policy to install new PV installations in the most power-hungry regions at a lower cost than other energy sources. Any further increase in the current $17 billion subsidy payment backlog must be avoided, IHS Markit said.